El Niño continues to strengthen rapidly, and the probabilities are becoming difficult to ignore. NOAA’s outlook puts the probability of a very strong El Niño at greater than 90% for the fall and winter of 2026–27, with a 75% probability that the October–December event reaches a level stronger than any previous El Niño in the record dating back to 1950. While the strength of El Niño does not guarantee a specific winter outcome, strong events can significantly shift temperature patterns across the United States.

For energy buyers, the key question is what a very strong El Niño could mean for temperatures in the major natural gas and electricity demand regions this winter.

Midwest: Warmer Than Normal Favored

The Midwest has one of the clearest temperature relationships with strong El Niño events. Historically, above-normal winter temperatures have been favored across the Upper Midwest and Great Lakes, including much of Illinois, Wisconsin, Michigan and Minnesota.

The 1997–98 El Niño produced exceptional warmth across much of the northern United States, while the 2015–16 event was also unusually warm across much of the Midwest. The 1972–73 and 1982–83 events demonstrate that colder periods remain possible, but sustained colder-than-normal conditions become less likely when a strong El Niño pattern is established.

For energy markets, a warmer Midwest generally means lower heating demand and reduced natural gas consumption. However, a warmer seasonal average does not eliminate the possibility of a one- or two-week Arctic outbreak capable of producing a significant increase in demand.

East Coast: Warmer North, More Uncertainty South

The temperature signal becomes more mixed moving down the East Coast. The Northeast generally has a warmer-than-normal bias during strong El Niño winters, while the Mid-Atlantic is more variable. Moving into the Southeast, the historical tendency shifts toward near- or below-normal temperatures.

The last four major El Niño events—1972–73, 1982–83, 1997–98 and 2015–16—show considerable variation in East Coast temperatures. The 1997–98 and 2015–16 winters were notably warm across large portions of the Northeast, while other events allowed significantly colder air to move into the eastern United States.

This distinction matters because the Northeast remains one of the country's most important winter natural gas demand centers. Even during an otherwise warm winter, a sustained period of below-normal temperatures from Boston through New York and the Mid-Atlantic can quickly increase natural gas and electricity demand.

Texas: Greater Potential for Below-Normal Temperatures

Texas behaves differently from the northern United States during strong El Niño winters. Historically, strong El Niño conditions have increased the likelihood of near- to below-normal temperatures, particularly during the second half of winter.

That does not mean Texas should experience continuous cold. Instead, the pattern can create opportunities for colder air to penetrate farther south while the northern United States experiences an overall warmer winter.

From an energy perspective, Texas is particularly important because short-duration cold events can create significant increases in both natural gas and electricity demand. The seasonal average matters less than whether extreme cold develops during a concentrated period.

California: A Weaker Temperature Signal

California's temperature relationship with El Niño is considerably less consistent. The strongest historical El Niño events have produced a range of temperature outcomes, with much of the state often finishing near to somewhat above normal.

Unlike the Midwest, there is not a strong enough historical temperature relationship to assume that an exceptionally strong El Niño automatically means an unusually warm or cold California winter.

What the Last Four Major El Niños Tell Us

The 1972–73, 1982–83, 1997–98 and 2015–16 El Niño events provide an important reminder that no two winters behave exactly alike. The 1997–98 and 2015–16 winters were particularly warm across large portions of the northern United States, supporting the historical relationship between strong El Niño conditions and reduced sustained cold across the Midwest and Northeast. The earlier events produced greater regional variability.

The broad historical pattern for a very strong El Niño therefore favors above-normal temperatures across the Midwest and Northeast, a more mixed outlook along the Mid-Atlantic, greater potential for near- to below-normal temperatures across Texas and portions of the Southeast, and a weaker temperature signal in California.

What This Means for Energy Buyers

The most important energy-market risk may not be the expected El Niño pattern, but rather a departure from it.

Natural gas and power markets are entering winter with expectations for a very strong El Niño and a reduced probability of sustained cold across the major northern heating-demand regions. If that expectation proves correct, winter demand could remain relatively manageable.

The risk changes if weather forecasts begin showing prolonged below-normal temperatures across the Midwest and Northeast or a significant cold outbreak extending into Texas. Natural gas and electricity demand could increase rapidly, forcing markets to reprice a colder scenario.

A warmer seasonal outlook does not eliminate winter energy price risk. If anything, the greater risk may come when actual temperatures deviate sharply from the weather assumptions already reflected in market prices.

EnerNova Partners helps businesses manage electricity price risk through market intelligence, procurement strategy, contract structuring, and ongoing risk management.

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