The Enernova Insights

At the heart of the United States power supply stack sits natural gas. It fuels most of the new generation, supports grid reliability, and increasingly underpins the power consumed by data centers, manufacturing, and electrification. Yet the physical behavior of shale gas production tells a more fragile story than most markets appreciate.

Across US power markets, the largest source of future cost increases is expected to come from non-energy components of the bill such as capacity, transmission, distribution, and other reliability charges. These charges are driven less by total energy usage and more by the amount of demand a customer place on the grid during peak conditions.

Advocate Aurora Health, one of the nation’s largest not-for-profit health systems, faced rising utility costs and aggressive sustainability goals while seeking predictable, long-term savings. Like many organizations, they needed access to clean, renewable energy without the burden of installing or maintaining on-site systems.

Many energy buyers think they are simply making a purchase when they sign a supply agreement. In reality they are covering an open short position. By consuming power and gas without having secured the forward cost every business is short the commodity.

U.S. underground natural gas storage has a total design capacity of about 4.2 Tcf, a figure that has not grown in more than a decade despite rising demand.

PJM has released capacity prices for the 2026/2027 planning year, offering greater clarity on market pricing through May 2027.

A sweeping new federal budget bill, unofficially called the “Big, Beautiful Bill,” has the potential to reshape clean energy market dynamics. While developers may be focused on construction timelines and credit eligibility, clean energy buyers should also pay close attention to how this legislation may impact future procurement opportunities.

Just four years ago, $2.50/Mcf was seen as the breakeven price for U.S. natural gas production. Today, that number has moved sharply higher.

Our market research team is seeing signs of a short-term shift in power markets. Our modeling indicates the most likely near-term path is lower, with a projected 5% to 8% decline in forward pricing between now and mid-September.