On January 16th, 2026, heading into the MLK long weekend, the tone was that winter was basically done. Then the weather models flipped hard over the holiday. When everyone came back, traders and energy buyers had to reprice risk all at once.

That shift showed up immediately in storage expectations. A colder outlook meant higher heating demand, larger expected withdrawals, and a much steeper downward storage trajectory.

Positioning added fuel. A lot of hedge fund traders were caught short the front of the curve. As prices jumped, those shorts were forced to buy back, turning the move into a short squeeze. Forced buying can push prices above fundamentals, at least temporarily.

This is where headlines can confuse buyers. We call the front month the “CNBC” price because it is the number blasted across mainstream media. In weeks like this, it can create fear and urgency, even though most large buyers are not purchasing the prompt month. Most disciplined buyers have already bought earlier and should stay focused on March and beyond, where the market often moves far less and where they actually are exposed.

For index customers, the impact is immediate. The daily index chart shows how fast cash power can explode when systems tighten, with both PJM and ERCOT spiking to jaw dropping levels late month. If you are exposed to index pricing, be prepared for short term budget shocks.

At EnerNova, our goal is to put clear facts and data in front of our clients so they can make properly informed decisions, unlike others who try to sell fear. We are energy risk management experts. We help buyers understand what is actually happening in the market, what it means for their specific contract structure, and how to stay disciplined with strategies that reduce exposure to short term volatility. Contact us today to discover the EnerNova Difference.

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