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Be Patient, Lower Prices Likely. Here’s How Our Clients Are Preparing

Market Insights
2
min read
June 27, 2025
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Be Patient, Lower Prices Likely. Here’s How Our Clients Are Preparing
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Our market research team is seeing signs of a short-term shift in power markets. Our modeling indicates the most likely near-term path is lower, with a projected 5% to 8% decline in forward pricing between now and mid-September.

We’re advising clients to consider setting strike prices with their best-matched suppliers now, as price dips often happen quickly and don’t wait for contract signees to return to the office. With EnerNova’s proprietary modeling and supplier benchmarking tools, we help ensure pricing discipline and execution when opportunities arise.

Our outlook is shaped by several key fundamentals:

  • Natural gas storage continues to build at a robust pace, well above seasonal norms.
  • Even with recent record-setting load in most regions, day-ahead pricing has remained weak compared to recent years.
  • We expect power prices to fall more than natural gas in forward markets through the rest of the summer.

Still, markets can get ahead of themselves. Just like we saw in Winter 2024, the seasonal low can arrive sooner than expected if the mild summer persists. Timing is critical, and we’re here to help you navigate the markets and optimize your energy spend.

If you're looking to actively manage price risk, the EnerNova team is here to support you with market intelligence, contract negotiation, accountability tools, and custom trigger structures.

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