The biggest driver of future electricity prices won’t be the weather it’ll be whether the system can deliver power at all. We’re seeing a growing mismatch between energy demand and the capacity of the grid, supply chain, and labor force to support it. Transformers are backlogged. Gas turbines once a flexible fallback—are facing year-plus lead times. Battery storage components are delayed by tight mineral markets. Transmission queues stretch for years. And even basic equipment like switchgear is increasingly hard to come by.

What used to be a once-a-year occurrence like a 50 MW load request—has become a weekly conversation. The first question isn’t about price or term length anymore. It’s: “Where can I get power?”

It’s Not Just the Big Users Feeling It

While hyperscale loads get the headlines, these constraints affect everyone. A food processor trying to electrify a line. A manufacturer adding 2 MW of new equipment. A warehouse planning rooftop solar and backup. All are encountering delays—and often, price premiums—because infrastructure can’t keep up. And when supply can’t meet demand, prices don’t just rise—they spike. Grid congestion causes basis blowouts. Scarce transformers and gas turbines drive up development costs. Delayed generation projects raise forward capacity prices. Even companies with no change in load will feel the squeeze as constrained regions see localized price pressure build.

We’re heading into a market where physical constraints more than fuel or weather will shape energy pricing for years to come.

We All Agree on More Nuclear—But We’re Missing the Talent

There's broad agreement that more nuclear capacity is needed to stabilize the grid and meet long-term demand.But the talent isn’t there.The number of licensed nuclear engineers is declining sharply. Retirements are accelerating. Few graduates are entering the field. Without a large-scale effort to rebuild the workforce, nuclear ambitions will remain stuck on paper limiting generation options and tightening future supply.

What Energy Buyers Should Do Now

In this environment, the smartest energy buyers are those who plan not just for price—but for access. That means:

• Start earlier than you think—especially for load expansions, solar + storage projects, or fleet electrification.
• Account for infrastructure and labor constraints in your planning timeline—not just market conditions.
• Use location as a lever—selecting sites based on grid capacity may have more impact than incentives or utility rates.
• Think in terms of execution risk, not just commodity risk.

The EnerNova Difference:

At EnerNova, our independent research team develops innovative, data-driven strategies tailored to specific market dynamics and customer needs. We don’t follow the standard playbook — we rewrite it. If you are ready for smarter energy procurement, discover the EnerNova difference.

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