Following this weekend’s U.S. strike on Iranian targets, we've received a wave of questions from clients about what this could mean for energy markets. While the headlines may jolt crude oil, particularly with global supply routes on edge, the direct impact on U.S. power and natural gas markets is far more limited. The main reason: U.S. LNG export capacity is already operating at full throttle, and that was the case even before Middle East tensions escalated.

There is one domestic exception worth noting: New England's winter gas and power prices, which compete with Europe and Asia for LNG cargoes. In peak winter months, tight global LNG markets can strain supply into the Northeast and drive significant regional volatility. For more background on these dynamics, see our recent post: New England Prices Escalate vs. Nearby States in the Winter.

In the U.S., the main driver of power and gas prices remains domestic weather, especially how hot the eastern half of the country gets, and for how long. After an extended and mild spring, this week marks the arrival of the first true heat wave, with record power demand forecast across major regions. The longer the heat persists, the more it will tighten supply-demand balances and push prices higher for forward terms through 2026. However, if the heat proves short-lived and the rest of the summer remains mild, our models project prices could retreat toward a $3.50 floor.

‍The EnerNova Difference: At EnerNova, our independent research team develops innovative, data-driven strategies tailored to specific market dynamics and customer needs. We don’t follow the standard playbook — we rewrite it. If you are ready for smarter energy procurement, discover the EnerNova difference.

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